Context: “Tough talk won’t work with Beijing”
It is hard not to feel like a rock star when soon after you assert something, articles in the media echo your very thoughts. I’m not saying anyone read my writing and decided to write similarly. Instead, I just mean: its nice to be on par with what’s news out there. Here I would like to highlight the NY Times/International Herald Tribune article “Tough talk…” and provide some further context and add my thoughts.
“Tough talk won’t work with Beijing” by Eduardo Porter showed up in the International Herald Tribune on Oct. 25, 2012 and described several parallels I had written about recently concerning the Reagan era vis a vis the Japanese “threat.” A few choice tidbits that really do echo my own thoughts include…
“…President Barack Obama wanted to convey (this image) when he countered that he has been twice as tough on China as his predecessor, George W. Bush. The vignette, however, is old. It comes from Ronald Reagan’s second term, when Japan, rather than China, inspired fears of American decline.”
“More important, trying to push China around like a bulked-up version of 1980s Japan does not fit with U.S. national interests. In fact, it puts at risk a central, long-term American objective: drawing China into the club of prosperous, rulebound, democratic nations.”
And perhaps most closely echoing my thoughts here…
“The Chinese currency is the wrong target. Of course China has been manipulating its currency for years, buying mountains of dollars to keep the renminbi cheap and give its exporters a leg up. But Beijing appears ready to correct course.”
…or as I put it, the candidates are barking up the wrong tree on the RMB. And Porter goes on to provide quite a bit more detail, making the article well worth the read.
However, this is not just an admiration of Porter’s work. Instead, one line stood out for me above all others…
“Political turmoil is swirling just weeks before the second peaceful transition of power in the history of the Chinese Communist Party.”
It could easily have been written “…second peaceful transition of power in modern Chinese history.”
This is a point I think escapes many and since it does, it is difficult for them to come to terms with some of the sensitivities around this topic. So, allow me an attempt to put things in context and perspective.
Fellow truly-adult Americans, as you sit reading this one thing seems quite certain. Your life has been safe. Your parents life has been safe. If you are younger than me, then even your grandparent’s life was safe (since my grandparents are of the “Greatest Generation” persuasion, I don’t quite make it).
A fellow Chinese can barely say the same thing. Relative stability came only in the 80s and prosperity only in the 90s. 20 years. That’s it. And as we look back beyond the internal turmoils of the 70s, 60s, 50s, we see a long, long string of war. In short, since roughly the time of the US Civil War, China was at war…either civil or international.
Sit back and think about that.
How would it be if the problems of the 1800s which led to the Civil War (1861-65), didn’t stop with Lincoln’s victory? Instead, incredibly, aliens had landed. At first, it seemed like no big deal. The aliens didn’t have much that Lincoln and the US wanted and so, it was decided it was best to keep them at arms length. But the aliens didn’t like that, so they started doing some really unsavory things – like peddling addictive drugs all across these newly united States. And when Lincoln objected, and confiscated the drugs, or Sherman made his bow ties with their ships and evicted them from where they weren’t supposed to be…the aliens picked fights and started wars on US soil. And with the power of their alien weapons, they won. And to punish Lincoln for starting the wars (oh, cruel irony!), they scoop up land and make colonies of Rhode Island, Manhattan, Cape Cod, and Georgia. Which the US wouldn’t fully get back until Clinton (in 1998!!!! (Can you even name all the presidents between Lincoln and Clinton? That’s how long we’re talking here!) Afterwards, the aliens continue to hold battles on your turf, between themselves and with the presidents. And only after W.H. Taft decides to poison all the wells do the aliens finally, mostly, pull up stakes. And then, because everything is such a mess, the US suffers more internal wars, battles and internal “political” campaigns right up until 1990 when Bush finally says “maybe there is some alien stuff we can use.”
That is the mental background of China.
Seem incredible? Or maybe the point is just not sinking in? Pull out a long, long calendar and let’s review
1800s: Qing dynasty cohesion is lost. Then: aliens land. (Yes, that would be you, me and the rest of we Europeans)
1850-1872：”Kingdom of Heavenly Peace” (“Taiping Heavenly Kingdom”) rebellion (“civil war”) holds sway over big parts of southern China.
1839-41 & ’56-’60: The aliens get restless and kick off the Opium Wars (when “gunboat diplomacy” was invented) by peddling drugs because that’s all anyone will buy from them and they feel that if only they weren’t segregated and everyone would just love Christ, everything would be great. They win, unsurprisingly. And the punishment for refusing the drugs, is forced assignments of “spheres of influence” and colonies such as Hong Kong and Taiwan.
1898 – 1901: “Righteous Harmony” civil war (a.k.a. Boxer Rebellion) where the citizens object to all the alien ways, and eventually the aliens fight the people and the government, eventually chasing the rulers out of the capital.
1901 – 1911: It seems quiet, but small rebellions are happening all over. And ultimately, a guy names Sun pulls everyone together for another little war, and eventually a republic is founded BUT…
1916 – 1928: Within the republic, former government officials are trying to make themselves emperor, and warlords set themselves up across the country. Until someone named Jiang is able to get most of them to toe the line. Except this other guy, named Mao.
1894 and/or 1937 – 1945: the Sino-Japanese Wars. Skirmish after skirmish and battle after battle are fought with the most similar alien, who just won’t leave you alone. Ultimately, these aliens invade full scale. And only stop when another alien drops a super weapon on their homeland.
1945 – 1949: More Civil War as Jiang and Mao do their last tangoes.
1949 – a People’s Republic is founded, but suffers internal vying and fighting (for another 30 years).
1971 – finally, the most powerful alien recognizes the government that’s been in place for 20+ years, no matter how unsavory or unstable.
1980s – a guy named Deng finally seems to say, “maybe there is some alien stuff we could use” and has to reconfirm it in 1990.
…and with that, I hope you can see: 130 years, jam packed with war. Only the quite young here feel stable and secure, without memories and stories of suffering and turmoil!
So, is it any wonder that “stability” and “internal” are catchphrases? That the government is wary of motives and potential pitfalls?
I’m not saying that forgiveness, pity or whitewash replace objections and issues with rulers. Still, when dealing with China, which common wisdom also recognizes has a long memory to go with its long history, we would do well to accurately recognize the issues and minimize barking up the wrong trees. It not only makes us annoying, it drains all our credibility in what could be a mutually beneficial relationship.
